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Tracking trends in American public opinion, this study examines moods of public policy over time. James Stimson looks at shorter term movements as the public approves or disapproves politicians, trusts or distrusts government. His book is distinctive in that it focuses on determining the unobserved true opinion that lies beneath superficial polls. It argues that public opinion is decisive in American politics and identifies the citizens who produce influential change as a relatively small subset of the American electorate.

Part I. Preface: The Shutdown: 1. On Point of View

2. On How the Book Came to be Written

3. On Truth, Objectivity, and Spin

Part II. :Opinion Flows: 4. A Theory of Public Opinion

5. Some Postulates About Opinion Movement

6. Design of the Book

Part III: What the Public Wants of Government: 7. Thinking About Public Opinion

8. Absolute and Relative

9. Means and Ends

10. What are the Considerations: Policy Domains

Some Newer Policy Conflicts

Part IV: Left and Rights Movements in Preference: 11. The Issue Evolution Theory of Issue Alignment

12. Three Issue Evolutions

13. Preference for Liberalism and Conservatism

14. Ideology

Part V. The Great Horse Race: 15. The Lore of Presidential Campaigns: Three Stories

16. Do the Polls Predict Presidential Elections?

17. So, What Really Matters?

18. Candidate Debates

Part VI: Between the Campaigns: 19. The Presidency

20. U.S. Senators

21. Governors

22. Trust in Government

23. Is Approval Generic?

Part VII. On Politics at the Margin: 24. A Tale of Three Elections

25. Who Accounts for Change in American Politics?

26. The Rhythms of Opinion: A Reconsideration

27. On Marginal Democracy.

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书籍介绍

Tracking trends in American public opinion, this study examines moods of public policy over time. James Stimson looks at shorter term movements as the public approves or disapproves politicians, trusts or distrusts government. His book is distinctive in that it focuses on determining the unobserved true opinion that lies beneath superficial polls. It argues that public opinion is decisive in American politics and identifies the citizens who produce influential change as a relatively small subset of the American electorate.